The Balloon: There's No Bubble In Real Estate!

Real estate is a hard asset. Hard assets can increase and decrease in value over time. We have witnessed some massive increases in the past few years fueled by inflation, under-supply, under-building, demographic shifts and adjustments, massive wealth creation, etc. Some of this was natural and expected, although a bit delayed. Some of it was artificially fueled by extremely low rates held low too long. Some of it was speculative. Some of it was fueled by increased corporate-style thinking around ownership.

But think of real estate - especially homes, an essential need - as more of a balloon than a bubble. Some cycles inflate that balloon and others deflate it. And most importantly: every home - if we think of it as a balloon - is different. Never forget that all markets and homes and areas and neighborhoods are different. Averages are bad, often useless, data. Real estate is HYPER-localized.

A little deflation after massive inflation may serve us all well, especially those who argued that once prices are up they can NEVER go down. They are wrong too. Think of it this way, a brick is a brick! Other assets have the capacity to burst and leave behind mere fragments/traces: Not homes.

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